It was 60 days prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his displays were an indicator or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win any of their first six matches, are somehow just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, in only two games have Villa posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, the Villans appear curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is a different scenario in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers faced the North End after the match orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
