A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
